The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm. As of its 7 p.m. EST tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea was associated with a tropical wave.

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Rafael remains disorganized in the Gulf of Mexico and should continue to weaken, but forecasters are also keeping their eyes on a tropical disturbance that popped up in the Atlantic Ocean.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin could form later this week as thunderstorms brew in the Caribbean.

The low-pressure area has a high chance of tropical development over the next few days, The system is working to form in the eastern Caribbean and is bringing a lot of rain to several islands, including Puerto Rico. November is typically a less active month due to it being the end of the hurricane season.

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